DII Report: Wayne Cavadi's third DII football championship bracket prediction
DII football is drunk. Major upsets once again rock the projected bracket seedings.
The upset train keeps rolling through DII football, changing the way the bracket could look come the Nov. 17 selection show. For the third-straight week, my No. 1 team was upset as Pittsburg State fell; No. 2 Ouachita Baptist lost to a team that had 0 wins; Johnson C. Smith was shutout by a sub-.500 team; and CSU Pueblo staked its claim in Super Region Four. There was much more, but you can take a look at the upsets and the latest Power 10 rankings here (no paywall!).
Last week, the first regional “rankings” dropped, albeit listed in alphabetical order. If you’ve been following along, you noticed I got 38 of the first 40 teams correct. But remember — I am doing my projection for Nov. 17, NOT a regional ranking of what the bracket looks like TODAY. The teams I missed — Winston-Salem State and Saginaw Valley State — were both mentioned in my previous two projections, there is a chance that neither is in the conversation come the final regional rankings, minus unforeseen upsets. My second projected bracket was in last week’s DII Report. In case you missed it, you can read it here.
Before we get into the movement in each Super Region, here are some scores that had a major impact on my first projections.
UPSET: Southern Nazarene 18, Ouachita Baptist 17
UPSET: American International 27, Assumption 24
CSU Pueblo 44, Western Colorado 34 (minor upset, but huge impact in SR4)
UPSET: Angelo State 17, Central Washington 16
UPSET: Fort Hays State 36, Emporia State 7
UPSET: Wingate 14, Lenoir-Rhyne 10
UPSET: Fayetteville State 27, Johnson C. Smith 0
UPSET: Mars Hill 31, Emory & Henry 23
Remember, this is NOT a regional ranking. Those regional rankings come out Monday, Oct. 28 (and will be listed here) and if you want a great look at what the regional rankings look like in real-time, you should be following Inkblot Sports as those numbers come very close. Instead, this is a look at how I expect the top seven in each Super Region come selection Sunday, Nov. 17, on NCAA.com.
Wayne Cavadi’s third DII football bracket projection
(Note: If you see a +1 or -1, it is tracking the movement of the team from the previous week)
Super Region One
Kutztown
Charleston (WV)
Cal (PA)
Ashland +1
Slippery Rock -1
East Stroudsburg
New Haven
In the hunt: Assumption, Bentley, Findlay, Tiffin
Quick thoughts: Not much change here. I had Assumption out last week and that loss to a 2-win American International could spell the end of the Greyhounds’ postseason aspirations and probably put Bentley in the Nov. 4 regional rankings. Charleston (WV) is the current No. 1 as of Nov. 4, but Cal (PA) and Kutztown are locked into the PSAC championship game. If Kutztown runs the table and wins that game, the Golden Bears will be No. 1, if Cal wins, Charleston will hold on to the No. 1, and Cal should jump to No. 2 on Nov. 17. I can see Findlay at No. 7 in the Nov. 4 regional rankings, but I think a few more wins gets New Haven the earned access come Nov. 17.
Super Region Two
Valdosta State
Wingate +7
Carson-Newman
Virginia Union
Johnson C. Smith -3
Lenoir-Rhyne
Miles
In the hunt: Emory & Henry, West Florida, West Alabama, Delta State
Quick thoughts: Here’s where it gets murky. Winston-Salem State was still very much in the mix, but I think that loss to Johnson C. Smith sealed its fate, and now have to deal with a Fayetteville State full of momentum. Miles is where I could be wrong come Nov. 17. Right now, I have them in with earned access, but if Virginia Union wins against Virginia State and the CIAA championship game, the Panthers are locked in. Should they beat Johnson C. Smith in said CIAA championship, that could put the Golden Bulls postseason in jeopardy. But if they win, it could put Miles’ postseason hopes in doubt. The point is, there is a lot of meaningful football here that could shake this up, and I can very much see a Nov. 17 selection show with either Miles or Johnson C. Smith out and West Alabama in.
Super Region Three
Ferris State +2
Grand Valley State +4
Ouachita Baptist -2
Central Oklahoma +1
Harding +1
Pittsburg State -4
UIndy
In the hunt: Emporia State, Saginaw Valley State, Southern Arkansas, Henderson State
Quick thoughts: Welp, DII football happened. Again, remember this is a future projection, not what you will see in the Nov. 4 regional rankings. First, you’ll notice that there are 11 teams listed in the spreadsheet whereas I was able to narrow down the other regions to the 10 I expect to be there. That’s because Henderson State and Saginaw Valley State are separated by a thread right now, and since both have huge games remaining, it really depends on the outcome of both games. If both lose, I think Saginaw Valley State clings to the final 10th spot in this Super Region.
Now, how about the top? If Ferris State wins out against SVSU and Davenport, the No. 1 spot is theirs. However, as we’ve seen in this Super Region, anything can happen. DII football has had four-straight new No. 1s: Harding, Grand Valley State, Pittsburg State and now Ferris State. Notice anything? Yup, they are all right here in Super Region Three. There is a lot that can happen this coming weekend that can change how my final prediction looks, never mind the selection show on Nov. 17.
Super Region Four
Augustana (SD) +1
CSU Pueblo +3
Minnesota State +1
Western Colorado -3
Angelo State +2
Central Washington -3
Sioux Falls -1
In the hunt: Colorado Mesa, Colorado School of Mines, Western Oregon
Quick thoughts: I think we see CSU Pueblo as the No. 1 on Nov. 4, but if Augustana can beat Sioux Falls this week, I think it propels the Vikings to No. 1. That Sioux Falls loss could bounce them out of the bracket, BUT Colorado Mesa has CSU Pueblo left and Colorado Mesa has Western Colorado left. Like Super Region Three, those are very meaningful games and a bunch can change, but right now, I don’t think much will.
Of course, this is DII football 2024, and expectations are thrown out the window. So, let’s see what happens. We’ll know a lot more after this weekend for my next projection.
For your consideration
The following teams are still in the conversation and should not be considered out of the equation yet. Simply put, don’t sleep on these schools: Fort Hays State, Limestone, Wayne State (Neb), and West Florida.
(Note = The KPI is the overall ranking in DII, not just the Super Region. I do not calculate my own KPI, I go with the one listed on Faktor Sports, which is home to the Kevin Pauga Index. That is why I use the SoS on NCAA.org as well. My goal is not to have my own calculations to project what could be but try to make projections based on what the selection committee will see.)