DII Report™️: The Field of 56 — Final projection
Check out Wayne's super regional predictions and Eight for Cary as well.
Well, this is it. We are six hours away from the selection show on NCAA.com (you can watch here) and all the conference tournaments are decided. In case you missed it, I had a morning projection as we awaited the final conferences to wrap up their tournaments. Here is what that looks like, and yes, there were a few slight changes.
This is it. I will be joining Robert Frey of D2 Baseball before the selection show to discuss each region. Please give us a watch at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Current field of 56 projections
The DII baseball championship consists of 56 teams, eight of which find themselves in Cary, N.C. for the tournament finals. As a reminder, here is the breakdown of the 56 teams by region:
Atlantic, 6
Central, 8
East, 7
Midwest, 7
South, 8
South Central, 6
Southeast, 8
West, 6
(* = changed from last projection)
Atlantic — No. 1 seed: Millersville
Super Regional prediction: Millersville/Seton Hill
Winner: Millersville
Millersville (AQ from PSAC)
Cal (PA)
West Chester
Seton Hill
Frostburg State
Fairmont State (AQ from MEC as runner-up)
Just missed: East Stroudsburg
Notes: As a reminder, in case you missed it this morning, Fairmont State defeated Frostburg State in the MEC semifinals. While the Falcons face Point Park today for the title, it is irrelevant. Point Park is transitioning to DII and is ineligible, so the tournament runner-up gets the AQ and is in no matter the outcome. Where will I be wrong here? It is either East Stroudsburg or Frostburg State that is in, and I have the Bobcats since they beat ESU head-to-head earlier this season.
Central — No. 1 seed: Central Missouri
Super Regional prediction: Minnesota State/Central Missouri
Winner: Central Missouri
Central Missouri
Minnesota State (AQ from NSIC)
Pittsburg State
Central Oklahoma (AQ from MIAA)
Arkansas Tech
Arkansas-Monticello
Henderson State*
Harding* (AQ from the GAC)
Just missed: Augustana (SD), Southern Arkansas
Notes: So, Harding won the GAC tournament this afternoon, and what that ultimately did was bump Southern Arkansas from my morning projections. I can’t picture a region with three conferences in it made up of five teams from one conference, so that is where the odd man out comes from. Harding didn’t have better metrics than Henderson State or Southern Arkansas but got the AQ. Henderson State did have better metrics than Southern Arkansas and won three of the five meetings against the Muleriers.
East — No. 1 seed: Jefferson
Super Regional prediction: Franklin Pierce/Goldey-Beacom
Winner:
Jefferson
Wilmington (DE) (AQ from CACC)
Goldey-Beacom
Pace* (AQ from NE10)
Franklin Pierce
Molloy (AQ from ECC)
Felician*
Just missed: Southern New Hampshire
Notes: Pace won the NE10 and officially bumped the Penmen. This is exciting. We’ll finally have someone new in Cary from the East for the first time since 2019.
Midwest — No. 1 seed: Davenport
Super Regionals prediction: Davenport/GVSU
Winner: Grand Valley State
Davenport (AQ from the GLIAC)
Grand Valley State
Northwood (AQ from G-MAC)
Ashland
UIndy
Drury*
Missouri S&T (AQ from GLVC)
Just missed: Lewis, Wayne State (MI)
Notes: I want to be on record saying I really think Wayne State gets the final spot and Drury is out, but I am going by what I believe are the correct metrics here. Wayne State’s late-season run has played them into the tournament. The Warriors beat Saginaw Valley State and Grand Valley State to make the GLIAC finals and they do have a better PI than everyone minus Davenport and GVSU. So it comes down to Lewis and Drury. Lewis has the better RPI and KPI, but Drury has the better PI and won the head-to-head. In short, I’m confused, and this will be a tough choice.
South — No. 1 seed: Tampa
Super Regionals prediction: Tampa/Florida Southern*
Winner: Tampa
Tampa
Florida Southern
West Florida
Lynn
Mississippi College
Delta State
West Alabama (AQ from GSC)*
Albany State (GA) (AQ from SIAC)
Just missed: Valdosta State
Notes: Hat tip to D2 Baseball. I said earlier this morning I was torn between Florida Southern and West Florida at No. 2. I had West Florida, but Frey convinced me otherwise. That’s the only change.
South Central — No. 1 seed: Angelo State
Super Regionals prediction: Angelo State/UT Tyler
Winner: Angelo State
Angelo State (AQ from LSC)
UT Tyler
Colorado Mesa (AQ from RMAC)
Lubbock Christian
CSU Pueblo
St. Edward’s (TX)
Just missed: Regis (CO)
Notes: No changes from this morning.
Southeast — No. 1 seed: Catawba
Super Regionals prediction: Lenoir-Rhyne/Catawba
Winner: Lenoir-Rhyne
Catawba (AQ from SAC)
Belmont Abbey (AQ from CC)
Lenoir-Rhyne
Young Harris
North Greenville
Lander* (AQ from PBC)
North Georgia
Carson-Newman
Just missed: UNC Pembroke*
Notes: No change from this morning. I am pretty locked in with these picks in a very tricky region to pick.
West — No. 1 seed: Northwest Nazarene*
Super Regionals prediction: Westmont/Cal State Monterey Bay
Winner: Cal State Monterey Bay*
Northwest Nazarene (won GNAC)
Westmont (AQ from PacWest)
Cal State Monterey Bay (AQ from CCAA)
MSU Billings*
Point Loma
Chico State
Just missed: Hawaii Pacific, San Francisco State
Notes: The top three are locks. I went back and forth between Hawaii Pacific and Point Loma, so that is perhaps where I will be wrong. But I left the Sea Lions in.