DII Report™️: The Field of 56 — Morning projection
Check out Wayne's super regional predictions and Eight for Cary as well.
Happy selection Sunday, DII baseball fans. There is still some baseball — and spots in the bracket — to be filled, but this is a morning projection. I will send out another FINAL projection after conferences like the NE10, GLVC, GAC and GLIAC wrap things up today — all four outcomes could change what you see below.
Remember, this is based on what I think will happen today, not a simple look at the metrics. It could vary slightly from what you saw in Wednesday’s final regional rankings.
Current field of 56 projections
The DII baseball championship consists of 56 teams, eight of which find themselves in Cary, N.C. for the tournament finals. As a reminder, here is the breakdown of the 56 teams by region:
Atlantic, 6
Central, 8
East, 7
Midwest, 7
South, 8
South Central, 6
Southeast, 8
West, 6
(* = changed from last projection)
Atlantic — No. 1 seed: Millersville
Super Regional prediction: Millersville/Seton Hill
Winner: Millersville
Millersville (AQ from PSAC)
Cal (PA)
West Chester
Seton Hill
Frostburg State
Fairmont State (AQ from MEC as runner-up)
Just missed: East Stroudsburg
Notes: Fairmont State defeated Frostburg State in the MEC semifinals. While the Falcons face Point Park today for the title, it is irrelevant. Point Park is transitioning to DII and is ineligible, so I believe the tournament runner-up gets the AQ and is in no matter the outcome. That made the final spot between East Stroudsburg and Frostburg State, and the Bobcats took the series with the Warriors early this year, so right now I have ESU out.
Central — No. 1 seed: Central Missouri
Super Regional prediction: Minnesota State/Central Missouri
Winner: Central Missouri
Central Missouri
Minnesota State (AQ from NSIC)
Southern Arkansas
Pittsburg State
Central Oklahoma (AQ from MIAA)
Arkansas Tech
Arkansas-Monticello
Harding/Henderson State (GAC tournament still in progress)
Just missed: Augustana (SD)
Notes: First and foremost, Harding is the wild card here. The Bisons are tied 1-1 in the best-of-three GAC championship, so if Henderson State wins the Reddies are in, and hence why you see the eighth spot listed as such. However, Harding winning makes things VERY interesting here.
Right now, Henderson State has metrics that are borderline to be in, with a better PI than Augustana, Central Oklahoma and UAM. Could Henderson State still get in with a loss? Well, it doesn’t help that I am befuddled here with Arkansas Tech. They have some metrics that are better than Arkansas-Monticello, but the Boll Weevils have the edge in KPI and swept Arkansas Tech earlier this season. They also went further in the GAC tournament, which is not a selection criteria, but could serve as recency bias. Do they cancel each other out, allowing only one into the tournament? Right now, I think it is Augustana (SD) just missing the tournament, but they did make the semifinals in the NSIC. I have to ponder more on this one, it is the toughest region to decipher in my opinion.
East — No. 1 seed: Jefferson
Super Regional prediction: Franklin Pierce/Goldey-Beacom*
Winner:
Jefferson
Wilmington (DE) (AQ from CACC)
Goldey-Beacom
Pace*
Franklin Pierce
Molloy (AQ from ECC)
Felician*
Just missed: Southern New Hampshire
Notes: Here’s what can change. SNHU and Pace are in the NE10 championship series, with Pac having a 1-0 lead. If Pace wins, the Setters are in, obviously. If SNHU wins, the Penmen get the AQ, but I still think Pace is in — so Felician would get the bump. This afternoon’s games will be interesting.
Midwest — No. 1 seed: Davenport
Super Regionals prediction: Davenport/GVSU
Winner: Grand Valley State
Davenport
Grand Valley State
Northwood (AQ from G-MAC)
Wayne State (MI)*
Ashland
UIndy
Illinois-Springfield/Missouri S&T
Just missed: Drury
Notes: There is a lot still going on today, so here are the scenarios.
Wayne State’s late-season run has played them into the tournament. If the Warriors can beat Davenport in the GLIAC championship, they lock it in, but I still think Davenport, win or lose, is No. 1. I had UIS as a sure-fire entry the past few weeks, but if Missouri S&T beats the Prairie Stars in today’s GLVC championship, I don’t know that their resume is strong enough to still get in. But I also don ‘t think there is enough room for two GLVC teams, and that is why Drury got bounced this week.
South — No. 1 seed: Tampa
Super Regionals prediction: Tampa/Florida Southern*
Winner: Tampa
Tampa
West Florida
Florida Southern
Lynn
Mississippi College
Delta State
West Alabama (AQ from GSC)*
Albany State (GA) (AQ from SIAC)
Just missed: Valdosta State
Notes: Albany State (GA) and West Alabama shook things up, bumping Spring Hill from the bracket and likely both Valdosta State and Nova Southeastern. The Sharks (SSC) not having a conference tournament I think ultimately hurts them, not being able to pick up a few more signature wins. Maybe, MAYBE, Delta State’s stumble down the stretch gets Valdosta State in, but Delta State won the season series 2-1, so that should lock the Statesmen into the bracket. I am confused by last week’s regional rankings. The Mocs have a worse PI and SoS than Lynn, but do have the higher RPI and KPI. However, Lynn swept the Mocs earlier this season. That’s why I had Lynn above the Mocs last week, but that may not be weighed as heavily, so I am sticking with what the latest regional rankings were, with little reason to change. That means the could have a chance at the No. 2 seed with their series win against West Florida to open the season, but again, how much does head-to-head play a role?
South Central — No. 1 seed: Angelo State
Super Regionals prediction: Angelo State/UT Tyler
Winner: Angelo State
Angelo State (AQ from LSC)
UT Tyler
Colorado Mesa (AQ from RMAC)
Lubbock Christian
CSU Pueblo
St. Edward’s (TX)
Just missed: Regis (CO)
Notes: St. Edward’s locked itself in with a deep run in the LSC making the only question here being between RMAC powers CSU Pueblo and Regis. CSU Pueblo owns every selection metric, so I think it is a simple pick.
Southeast — No. 1 seed: Catawba
Super Regionals prediction: Lenoir-Rhyne/Catawba
Winner: Lenoir-Rhyne
Catawba (AQ from SAC)
Belmont Abbey (AQ from CC)
Lenoir-Rhyne
Young Harris
North Greenville
Lander* (AQ from PBC)
North Georgia
Carson-Newman
Just missed: UNC Pembroke*
Notes: Lander won the PBC, but I still think North Georgia did enough to stay in the field. The only question mark is the final spot and there are a lot of teams in the hunt. Carson-Newman has the selection numbers to get in but has lost nine of their last 11 (author’s note: Apologies for this error — I was accidentally looking at the 2024 schedule; Carson-Newman is 6-5 over the past 11). UNC Pembroke and Francis Marion are right there, and of the three, UNC Pembroke has the worst record but played a superior SOS and has the highest PI of the three. I think Carson-Newman did enough to stay in, but I may change my mind in tonight’s final projection.
West — No. 1 seed: Northwest Nazarene*
Super Regionals prediction: Westmont/Cal State Monterey Bay
Winner: Cal State Monterey Bay*
Northwest Nazarene (won GNAC)
Westmont (AQ from PacWest)
Cal State Monterey Bay (AQ from CCAA)
MSU Billings*
Point Loma
Chico State
Just missed: Hawaii Pacific, San Francisco State
Notes: The top three are locks. Hawaii Pacific beat Point Loma PacWest tournament to reach the finals and has played a tougher SoS with a better PI, but the Sea Lions have a better KPI and RPI. So, I could be wrong there. I have changed my tune and MSU Billings may have done just enough to jump in and stay there. So I think that leaves the Gators and HPU out, but where I could be wrong is Hawaii Pacific in and Point Loma or Chico State out, but I will ponder further.