The DII Report: What to know about the first DII football regional rankings
The first of three regional rankings of the DII football season came out on Monday. Here's what we saw.
The first regional rankings of the 2021 DII football season dropped on Monday, Oct. 25. After eight weeks of football, these rankings — the first of three — offer the DII football fanatic a little insight to how the playoff bracket could unfold.
For those unfamiliar with the format, the DII football championship bracket is made up of 28 teams. Those 28 teams are broken down into four, seven-team Super Regions. Over the next three weeks, the DII football selection committee releases its regional rankings with the top-10 teams from each Super Region. The first seven are the teams that are “in” the tournament.
Unlike a poll, this is a more mathematical system based on many criteria, so you have to throw simple win-loss record out the window. Being undefeated doesn’t necessarily get a team a higher seed if the competition has been lesser than that of a one-loss team. Trends like strength of schedule, wins over teams with a .500 record and head-to-head play are a small part of the equation and while you may be excited that your favorite school took down an FCS team, that has little bearing on theses rankings. The focus is what you do against DII competition.
So, were there any surprises from the first regional rankings?
(Note: You should follow Chuck Bitner from D2football on Twitter. He puts in a lot of work to show the stats and trends that go into these picks and shares these via Tweets.)
Super Region 1
This one was wide open. Both Bentley and Cal (PA) are undefeated, but Kutztown and Shepherd have more wins against DII teams with above-.500 records. Ultimately, there are four worthy No. 1 seeds here, so it felt like one of the two undefeated teams would be the first recipient of the No. 1 seed. I leaned towards Cal (PA) with its most recent win over No. 7 Indiana (PA), but Bentley was worthy choice. Keep in mind, these first rankings don’t mean all that much. Bentley still has No. 6 New Haven on its schedule and Cal has a date with Slippery Rock in a couple of weeks. With how tight this region is, one loss shakes everything up.
Super Region 2
There is absolutely no surprise here. If you follow my Power 10 rankings at NCAA.com then you know that Valdosta State has been a top-5 team all season long. The Blazers are 3-0 against winning teams and play in the battle-tested Gulf South Conference so have one of the toughest schedules in DII. Bowie State was the clear-cut choice for No. 2 as well. Remember, only DII wins matter, and the Bulldogs lone loss was by one score to an FCS program, making them undefeated in what matters for these rankings. Valdosta State plays West Georgia this weekend so we can almost guarantee that this Super Region will change next week. Another game to watch here is the Lenoir-Rhyne vs. Wingate matchup. A Bears’ win will shake things up at the bottom of the Super Region and make this a free-for-all down the home stretch for the final few spots.
Super Region 3
The selection committee must have been relieved to get here, because this was the easiest region to pick. Ferris State is undefeated, has a highly successful run against teams with a strong winning percentage and have a signature win over No. 3 Grand Valley State. If you follow the AFCA rankings, some may be surprised that Harding is No. 2 and Ouachita Baptist is No. 8 in the regional rankings, but this was a no brainer. Harding does have one loss to No. 10 Southeastern Oklahoma State by one point but has handled business against Ouachita and No. 6 Henderson State. This weekend’s Northwest Missouri State and Nebraska-Kearney matchup has major implications on this region. A Bearcats’ loss would make both their losses against Super Region 3 teams (the other a one-point loss to No. 9 Washburn) and could drop the Bearcats out of the equation in next week’s rankings.
Super Region 4
I had no idea what was going to happen here, but my guess was Augustana (SD) was the deserving No. 1. The NSIC is wild this season, and while the Vikings dropped a heartbreaker to Sioux Falls, they have wins against first-place Bemidji State and back-to-back wins against then-No. 23 Wayne State (NE) and perennial superpower Minnesota State. Recency bias all but eliminated Colorado School of Mines from the No. 1 spot after falling to No. 8 Colorado Mesa this past Saturday, putting the Orediggers at 1-1 against teams with an above-.500 record… but they are one Augustana loss from jumping into that spot. What you’ll notice in this part of the bracket is that some of the conferences are very top heavy, which brings a balance to the competition. No team has a dominating record against above .500 teams, which makes this even murkier. Pay attention to this part of the bracket as there could be an entire new look next Monday.
Coming soon: Trevor Hudgins joins the DII Nation Podcast
This week, Northwest Missouri State’s star guard Trevor Hudgins joins the DII Nation. The Bearcats were recently ranked No. 1 in the preseason Power 10 rankings and Hudgins looks to secure his third national championship in three seasons. The new episode drops Wednesday, Oct. 27.
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