DII Report: Wayne Cavadi's FINAL DII football championship bracket prediction
The selection show is hours away. How close will I get to having it right?
Welcome back, DII football fanatics. If you read last night’s projections — which came ahead of the updated KPI from Faktor Sports — you can go ahead and throw them out. While the majority of the bracket remains as I projected last night at 9:45 p.m. ET, there were just a few small changes, which have been updated below.
As a reminder, the DII football selection show airs Sunday, Nov. 17 at 6 p.m. ET on NCAA.com. After the show, you should tune into Inside D2Football at 8 p.m. ET to hear Chuck, Witt, Kris, and the fellas discuss the bracket with an instant reaction. I have been making my projections for the past five weeks, so let’s see how close I get. Had last week’s regional rankings been the way the bracket plays out this Sunday, I would have missed only two teams, having 26 of 28 correct.
Games that mattered and affected the Super Regions:
Ouachita Baptist 27, Henderson State 20
Kutztown 21, Cal (PA) 14
Wingate 28, Carson-Newman 13
Virginia Union 17, Virginia State 13
Western Colorado 37, Colorado Mesa 7
Valdosta State 28, West Florida 7
Central Oklahoma 55, Emporia State 38
Michigan Tech 32, Saginaw Valley 28
Bemidji State 17, Augustana (SD) 10
Tiffin 37, Findlay 14
Wayne Cavadi’s FINAL DII football bracket projection
(Note: If you see a +1 or -1, it is tracking the movement of the team from the previous week.)
Super Region One
Kutztown
Charleston (WV)
Cal (PA)
Slippery Rock
East Stroudsburg
New Haven +1
Ashland +1
In the hunt: Bentley, Findlay, Tiffin
Original quick thoughts (Saturday, Nov. 17, 9:45 p.m. ET): Only one change here. As projected, Kutztown won the PSAC and takes the No. 1 spot. The big change was Ashland won and Findlay was upset by Tiffin, which I believe will be enough to get Ashland into the final spot and keep New Haven in with earned access.
Updated quick thoughts: Nothing to see here. The KPI updated didn’t change this part of the bracket.
Super Region Two
Valdosta State
Wingate
West Alabama
Lenoir-Rhyne +2
Miles +2
Virginia Union -1
Carson-Newman -3
In the hunt: Emory & Henry, Johnson C. Smith, Winston-Salem State
Original quick thoughts (Saturday, Nov. 17, 9:45 p.m. ET): This is really tough at the very top and very bottom. I can see Wingate’s win over Carson-Newman boosting the Bulldogs to No. 1, but I am sticking with the Blazers. Virginia Union had a better SoS than Johnson C. Smith and Winston-Salem State, but both JSCU and WSSU have a better record against plus-.500 teams. JCSU has wins over Virginia Union and WSSU, while VUU has the win over WSSU, essentially eliminating the Rams in my opinion. Miles doesn’t have the toughest SoS, but won the SIAC and did nothing to hurt its chances of staying locked into a bracket spot. I think Virginia Union winning the CIAA gets them the No. 6 or 7 spot, but the bottom three could be out of order.
Updated quick thoughts: Nothing is any clearer this morning between the final four spots. I am fairly confident in my 28 picks for the bracket; however, if I have one pick incorrect, it will be that Johnson C. Smith is in and Carson-Newman is out. The Eagles have played a significantly tougher schedule, but JCSU holds the edge in plus-.500 wins and KPI. This is the first year KPI is being used by the committee to make these difficult decisions, so this is where we will see how much of a factor it is.
Super Region Three
Ferris State
Grand Valley State
Pittsburg State
Ouachita Baptist
Central Oklahoma
Harding
UIndy
In the hunt: Central Missouri, Fort Hays State, Southern Arkansas
Original quick thoughts (Saturday, Nov. 17, 9:45 p.m. ET): There was no change in the top seven for me, but Saginaw Valley State’s loss to Michigan Tech dropped them out of the top-10 and postseason hunt. If I’m being honest, I’m having a tough time keeping Central Missouri out of No. 7, but a 10-1 record I think gets UIndy earned access. The one spot I can see myself wrong is where I have Ouachita Baptist. The Tigers can be as high as No. 3 or fall to No. 5.
Updated quick thoughts: I still think Ouachita could be No. 5, the metrics show that, but I don’t know, it just feels like the GAC champ gets a host seed. The only change is in the top 10 of the region, but it wasn’t enough to get Fort Hays State into the final spot.
Super Region Four
CSU Pueblo +1
Angelo State +2
Western Colorado +2
Augustana (SD) -3
Minnesota State -2
Central Washington
Bemidji State +1
In the hunt: Colorado Mesa, Colorado School of Mines, Sioux Falls
Original quick thoughts (Saturday, Nov. 17, 9:45 p.m. ET): This was really the only Super Region that went bananas on Saturday. Bemidji State has the edge with a win over Sioux Falls, and its win over Augustana (SD) on Saturday not only secured their spot in the bracket but bumped the Vikings from No. 1. That leaves CSU Pueblo as the unquestioned No. 1 for me. I think Angelo State really improved its stock, and I am very confident these are the correct seven teams; however, when the KPI is updated, I may shift the seedings.
Updated quick thoughts: Angelo State jumps up one with its KPI being significantly higher than Western Colorado. I really don’t see any other way this part of the bracket can go.
(Note = The KPI is the overall ranking in DII, not just the Super Region. I do not calculate my own KPI, I go with the one listed on Faktor Sports, which is home to the Kevin Pauga Index. That is why I use the SoS on NCAA.org as well. My goal is not to have my own calculations to project what could be but try to make projections based on what the selection committee will see.)