DII Report™️: The latest field of 56 predictions before the first regional rankings drop
Check out Wayne's super regional predictions and Eight for Cary as well.
The first DII baseball regional “rankings” drop this week. While they will be alphabetical, we’ll get a little taste of the 80 teams fighting for the 56 spots that fill the bracket.
If you are a long-time subscriber, you are well aware that DII baseball is a sport that I cover from August to June. This was the first year I put a preseason “Field of 56” projection out, so I am curious how many preseason teams will make the cut. If you want to take a stroll down memory lane, here were those projections.
So, where do I see the bracket now? Let’s take your weekly look.
Current field of 56 projections
The DII baseball championship consists of 56 teams, eight of which find themselves in Cary, N.C. for the tournament finals. As a reminder, here is the breakdown of the 56 teams by region:
Atlantic, 6
Central, 8
East, 7
Midwest, 7
South, 8
South Central, 6
Southeast, 8
West, 6
Remember, this is NOT a look at how things stand at the moment. That is what the regional rankings are for, so it seems silly to replicate that. It is how I expect them to look when the bracket is filled in May. There is a lot of baseball left to be played, and meaningful baseball at that. I look at the current selection committee metrics (things like RPI, KPI, strength of schedule, record vs. winning/ranked teams) but I also look ahead, and judge what could happen if things go the way I project they will.
(* = changed from last projection)
Atlantic — No. 1 seed: Millersville
Super Regional prediction: Millersville/East Stroudsburg
Winner: Millersville
East Stroudsburg
Frostburg State
Millersville
Seton Hill
Shippensburg
West Chester
Just missed: Cal (PA), Concord (WV), Slippery Rock
Notes: Nothing change here. Like last week, I expect the final spot to come down to Seton Hill or Cal (PA). Unfortunately, the two split their series, so it doesn’t help us separate things. Slippery Rock, which was my preseason sleeper for this region, has both on its schedule, meaning not only can The Rock play spoiler, but they could still potentially play themselves in.
Central — No. 1 seed: Central Missouri
Super Regional prediction: Minnesota State/Central Missouri
Winner: Central Missouri
Arkansas-Monticello
Augustana (SD)
Central Missouri
Central Oklahoma
Fort Hays State
Harding
Minnesota State
Pittsburg State
Just missed: Arkansas Tech, Southern Arkansas
Notes: A second week in a row where nothing changed. The big thing to watch here is the GAC. Arkansas-Monticello is currently in for me despite some of the metrics saying otherwise. The Boll Weevils have the series edge over Arkansas Tech and won a midweek matchup against Southern Arkansas earlier this year. However, UAM and the Muleriders play this weekend, which, with a Mulerider sweep, can change things.
East — No. 1 seed: Jefferson
Super Regional prediction: Franklin Pierce*/SNHU
Winner: Southern New Hampshire
Bentley
Franklin Pierce *
Goldey-Beacom
Jefferson
Molloy
Southern Connecticut State
Southern New Hampshire
Just missed: Felician, New Haven, Wilmington (DE)
Notes: The big change is Franklin Pierce, which not only played its way into the top 7 this week, but I can see as a super regional squad. Since March 19, the Ravens are 18-4 and already have series wins against Bentley and New Haven. The Ravens struggled early, but it was primarily against CACC competition losing to Molloy and Jefferson. They seem to have found another gear.
Midwest — No. 1 seed: Davenport
Super Regionals prediction: Davenport/GVSU
Winner: Grand Valley State
Ashland
Davenport
Grand Valley State
UIndy
Illinois-Springfield
Lewis
Northwood
Just missed: Saginaw Valley State
Notes: No change here except for Maryville and UMSL falling out of the “Just missed.” It is going to come down to head-to-head and common opponents because only Ashland, Davenport, GVSU, UIS, Lewis, and Northwood have winning records against plus-.500 opponents. I think this is the region where someone unexpected wins a conference, gets the AQ and blows things up.
South — No. 1 seed: Tampa
Super Regionals prediction: Tampa/Rollins*
Winner: Tampa
Delta State
Florida Southern
Lynn
Montevallo
Rollins
Spring Hill
Tampa
West Florida
Just missed: Mississippi College, Nova Southeastern, Valdosta State
Notes: Spring Hill was the first team to clinch its regular-season crown, so they stick for now. Right now, the biggest question mark is the final spot, which I see being a race between Montevallo, Valdosta State, Mississippi College and Nova Southeastern. It remains Montevallo because it has series wins against Delta State, Vadlosta State, West Florida and Mississippi College. The big change was Rollins to the supers. I just think this is the year someone sneaks through to play Tampa.
South Central — No. 1 seed: Angelo State
Super Regionals prediction: Angelo State/UT Tyler
Winner: Angelo State
Angelo State
Colorado Mesa
Lubbock Christian
Regis (CO)
St. Edward’s (TX)
UT Tyler
Just missed: CSU Pueblo, West Texas A&M
Notes: This region has been on lock down for months. No change, and I really don’t see any coming.
Southeast — No. 1 seed: North Greenville
Super Regionals prediction: Lenoir-Rhyne/North Greenville
Winner: Lenoir-Rhyne
Belmont Abbey
Carson-Newman
Catawba
Lenoir-Rhyne
Mount Olive*
North Georgia
North Greenville
Young Harris
Just missed: Coker, UNC Pembroke
Notes: I am stumped on the last team, but I think it is going to come down to UNC Pembroke, Mount Olive and Coker. UNC Pembroke took the season series from Mount Olive but split with Coker. When you look at the common opponent here (Mount Olive) Coker split the two games against the Trojans… so no further clarity there. Of the three, only one has a winning record against winning teams, and that is Mount Olive, which again, provides no clarity. If KPI is used as the deciding factor in the seeding for the finals, perhaps it will be used here, and Mount Olive has the edge. So, Mount Olive… final answer… I think.
West — No. 1 seed: Westmont
Super Regionals prediction: Westmont/San Francisco State
Winner: Westmont
Cal State Monterey Bay
Chico State
Northwest Nazarene
Point Loma
San Francisco State
Westmont
Just missed: MSU Billings
Notes: I went into detail about why I left MSU Billings out when the final selections were made last week, so I won’t get into it again, but my thoughts remain the same. I also think that right now Hawaii Pacific may have the numbers to sneak in, ultimately, the PacWest comes down to Point Loma and Westmont, which I don’t think leaves room for a third team. That opens the door for the Otters, who will be a threat to win it all if they sneak in after their slow start.