DII Report™️: The latest field of 56 projections
Check out Wayne's super regional predictions and Eight for Cary as well.
Welcome back, DII sports fans. We are one week away from the DII baseball bracket being filled, which makes this (potentially) the final bracket projection of the season. Not too much has changed, but it is important to note how tricky this week is because as I type, teams are in the middle of conference championship tournaments.
Why does that make things murky? Take a look at the GAC. The conference played its first rounds this past weekend, setting up the championship series between Harding and Henderson State. Neither was in the top 10 of last week’s regional rankings — but one is DII baseball championship bound. One team in the Central Region that has the metrics is about to be bounced, but since all of their tournaments are currently ongoing, we have no idea who.
Before we get to the projections, I wanted to share one of my favorite pieces I do every year at NCAA.com. This is my annual deep dive into some of the best arms in DII baseball. Many of these arms will make an impact this week and beyond. Find out their pitches and what makes them so special.
Kings of the hill: Breaking down some of DII baseball's best pitchers
Current field of 56 projections
The DII baseball championship consists of 56 teams, eight of which find themselves in Cary, N.C. for the tournament finals. As a reminder, here is the breakdown of the 56 teams by region:
Atlantic, 6
Central, 8
East, 7
Midwest, 7
South, 8
South Central, 6
Southeast, 8
West, 6
Remember, this is NOT a look at how things stand at the moment. That is what the regional rankings are for, so it seems silly to replicate that. It is how I expect them to look when the bracket is filled in May. There is a lot of baseball left to be played, and meaningful baseball at that. I look at the current selection committee metrics (things like RPI, KPI, strength of schedule, PI) but I also look ahead, and judge what could happen if things go the way I project they will.
(* = changed from last projection)
Atlantic — No. 1 seed: Millersville
Super Regional prediction: Millersville/Seton Hill*
Winner: Millersville
Millersville
West Chester
Frostburg State
East Stroudsburg
Cal (PA)
Seton Hill*
Just missed: Shippensburg
Notes: The final spot is up for grabs between Seton Hill and Shippensburg. I think both need to make a deep run in the PSAC tournament and then whichever team goes the furthest — or wins it all is in. I give the edge to Seton Hill because that pitching staff is made for tournament play. Keep an eye on Shepherd. They have played tough all season against the toughest SoS in the Atlantic Region and could be a huge disrupter if they win the PSAC.
Central — No. 1 seed: Central Missouri
Super Regional prediction: Minnesota State/Central Missouri
Winner: Central Missouri
Central Missouri
Pittsburg State
Minnesota State
Central Oklahoma
Augustana (SD)
Southern Arkansas
Arkansas-Monticello*
Harding*
Just missed: Arkansas Tech
Notes: Arkansas Tech jumped into the mix last week after claiming the GAC championship, but was bounced from the tournament by Harding. I think Harding wins the GAC championship series, which gets them in the door. Arkansas-Monticello had the regular-season head-to-head over Arkansas Tech, so I think that leaves them on the outside looking in.
East — No. 1 seed: Jefferson
Super Regional prediction: Franklin Pierce/Goldey-Beacom*
Winner: Franklin Pierce
Jefferson
Goldey-Beacom
Franklin Pierce
Wilmington (DE)
Bentley
Molloy
Southern New Hampshire
Just missed: Dominican (NY), Felician
Notes: A lot of spots shifted this week. The bottom line is someone needs to win the ECC, and I think that is Molloy as it is head and shoulders above the rest of the conference. Right now, I actually think Felician is in and SNHU is out, but I refuse to believe there is a universe where SNHU doesn’t make the field. We shall see what the Penmen can do in the NE10 tournament to secure their spot.
Midwest — No. 1 seed: Davenport
Super Regionals prediction: Davenport/GVSU
Winner: Grand Valley State
Davenport
Grand Valley State
Ashland
UIndy
Northwood
Illinois-Springfield
Drury*
Just missed: Lewis, Saginaw Valley State
Notes: The final two spots are wide open here. UIS should be able to do some damage in the GLVC tournament and lock down a spot. Lewis is falling apart down the stretch, so I think that opens the door for someone else. I gave the edge to Drury because the GLIAC is going to be a tough tournament for SVSU and I can see Drury sneaking to the finals of the GLVC.
South — No. 1 seed: Tampa
Super Regionals prediction: Tampa/West Florida*
Winner: Tampa
Tampa
West Florida
Florida Southern
Lynn
Mississippi College
Delta State
Valdosta State
Albany State (GA)*
Just missed: Nova Southeastern
Notes: It got really confusing here, especially with Delta State’s struggles. Albany State (GA) — my preseason pick for the SIAC — won the tournament, bouncing 40-14 Spring Hill from the bracket. Right now Valdosta State has the edge over Nova Southeastern because the Blazers took a series from the Sharks earlier this year.
South Central — No. 1 seed: Angelo State
Super Regionals prediction: Angelo State/UT Tyler
Winner: Angelo State
Angelo State
UT Tyler
Colorado Mesa
Regis (CO)
CSU Pueblo*
St. Edward’s (TX)
Just missed: Lubbock Christian
Notes: For a conference that seemed to stabilize a month ago, things have gotten interesting. I now have CSU Pueblo in and LCU out. The reason why is LCU had the dubious honor of drawing Angelo State in the LSC semifinals, where the Chaps season is in jeopardy. The Chaps also lost the regular-season series to St. Ed’s, giving the Hilltoppers the edge for the final spot. CSU Pueblo has a much better chance of reaching the RMAC finals in a conference that is a bit more wide open. IF LCU upsets Angelo State, it locks up its bid
Southeast — No. 1 seed: Catawba
Super Regionals prediction: Lenoir-Rhyne/Catawba*
Winner: Lenoir-Rhyne
Catawba
Lenoir-Rhyne
Belmont Abbey
Young Harris
Columbus State*
North Greenville
Mount Olive
North Georgia
Just missed: Carson-Newman, Lander, UNC Pembroke
Notes: This region went bonkers. Columbus State scored 12 runs in the ninth to bump North Georgia from the PBC semifinals, meaning either the Cougars or Lander, whichever wins the PBC tournament, is I,n and as you can see I went with Columbus State. I think Lander is very good, but that ninth-inning comeback is either the fuel the Cougars need or took everything out of them. North Greenville was bumped early in the CC tourney by two unranked teams, but UNC Pembroke (who the Trailblazers beat) went two and barbeque, so I think that keeps both NGU and Mount Olive in the mix.
West — No. 1 seed: Westmont
Super Regionals prediction: Westmont/Cal State Monterey Bay
Winner: Westmont
Westmont
Northwest Nazarene
Point Loma
Cal State Monterey Bay
Chico State
San Francisco State
Just missed: Hawaii Pacific, MSU Billings
Notes: I haven’t changed my tune here. CSUMB was my preseason pick for Cary, and I am back on the bus. The Otters won their fourth-straight CCAA title and head into he tourney with a lot of momentum. I almost bumped SF State for MSU Billings, but they lost five games to sub-.500 teams over the past two weekends.