DII Report™️: The first ranked field of 56 projections

Check out Wayne's super regional predictions and Eight for Cary as well.

Well, the first DII baseball regional rankings came out last week and to say there were quite a few surprises is an understatement. Hopefully, you have been keeping up with the weekly “Field of 56” projections here all season long. This week, we switch from alphabetical order to how I foresee the seedings to be in the bracket in two weeks.

Current field of 56 projections

The DII baseball championship consists of 56 teams, eight of which find themselves in Cary, N.C. for the tournament finals. As a reminder, here is the breakdown of the 56 teams by region:

• Atlantic, 6

• Central, 8

• East, 7

• Midwest, 7

• South, 8

• South Central, 6

• Southeast, 8

• West, 6

Remember, this is NOT a look at how things stand at the moment. That is what the regional rankings are for, so it seems silly to replicate that. It is how I expect them to look when the bracket is filled in May. There is a lot of baseball left to be played, and meaningful baseball at that. I look at the current selection committee metrics (things like RPI, KPI, strength of schedule, PI) but I also look ahead, and judge what could happen if things go the way I project they will.

(* = changed from last projection)

Atlantic — No. 1 seed: Millersville

Super Regional prediction: Millersville/East Stroudsburg

Winner: Millersville

1. Millersville

2. East Stroudsburg

3. Frostburg State

4. Cal (PA)*

5. West Chester

6. Shippensburg

Just missed: Seton Hill, Slippery Rock

Notes: Cal (PA) jumps into the top six and here is why. The Vulcans split with both Seton Hill and Slippery Rock. So when you go to RPI, PI and KPI, the Vulcans have the edge in all three. Depending on what happens this weekend (East Stroudsburg plays Millersville) and then what happens in the PSAC tournament, I can see Cal jumping as high as No. 2. Seton Hill, which hasn’t played Slippery Rock this year, but has the edge over Shippensburg with head-to-head, can still sneak in, but has to play flawless and reach the PSAC semis to have a chance.

Central — No. 1 seed: Central Missouri

Super Regional prediction: Minnesota State/Central Missouri

Winner: Central Missouri

1. Central Missouri

2. Pittsburg State

3. Minnesota State

4. Arkansas Tech*

5. Central Oklahoma

6. Augustana (SD)

7. Fort Hays State

8. Southern Arkansas*

Just missed: Arkansas-Monticello, Harding

Notes: Arkansas Tech clinched the GAC and thus, jumps into the mix after being in “just missed” for several weeks. That final spot is going to be confusing. Right now, Southern Arkansas is 2-2 vs. UAM, but has better selection metrics across the board. They also have signature wins against Delta State and UT Tyler, but that spot could change with how things go in the GAC tournament. Right now, I have the Muleriders.

East — No. 1 seed: Jefferson

Super Regional prediction: Franklin Pierce*/SNHU

Winner: Southern New Hampshire

1. Jefferson

2. Goldey-Beacom

3. Bentley

4. Franklin Pierce

5. Wilmington (DE)*

6. Southern New Hampshire

7. Molloy

8. Dominican (NY)*

Just missed: Felician, New Haven

Notes: Jefferson is the only team that has played anything remotely close to a top SoS and minus a complete collapse in the CACC, I think has the No. 1 seed locked up. I have ZERO idea what happens with the last spot; it could very well be Felician. The metrics between Dominican and Felician are so close, and naturally to help matters, they split their season series. Whichever team goes further in their tournament is who we’ll see in the DII bracket.

Midwest — No. 1 seed: Davenport

Super Regionals prediction: Davenport/GVSU

Winner: Grand Valley State

1. Davenport

2. Grand Valley State

3. Ashland

4. Northwood

5. UIndy

6. Illinois-Springfield

7. Lewis

Just missed: Saginaw Valley State

Notes: No change here in the teams. Do you know Davenport has the best RPI in DII baseball? I do see a scenario — it includes a near-perfect finish — that SVSU plays its way in and bumps Lewis, but again, the Cardinals will need to play flawless.

South — No. 1 seed: Tampa

Super Regionals prediction: Tampa/Florida Southern*

Winner: Tampa

1. Tampa

2. Florida Southern

3. West Florida

4. Rollins

5. Delta State

6. Lynn

7. Mississippi College*

8. Spring Hill

Just missed: Nova Southeastern, Valdosta State

Notes: The revolving door continues as Mississippi College is back in the top 8 and Montevalo falls out. Mississippi College has five-straight wins and it goes West Florida, Arkansas-Monitcello, and then the huge sweep of Delta State this weekend. That gets them in and may lock them in — a hot streak like this can completely disrupt the GSC tournament and I am here for it.

South Central — No. 1 seed: Angelo State

Super Regionals prediction: Angelo State/UT Tyler

Winner: Angelo State

1. Angelo State

2. UT Tyler

3. Colorado Mesa

4. Lubbock Christian

5. Regis (CO)

6. St. Edward’s (TX)

Just missed: CSU Pueblo, West Texas A&M

Notes: Last week, I said this region has been on lockdown for months. Where I could be wrong, especially after losing its weekend series to UT Tyler, is that CSU Pueblo will be No. 6 over St. Edward’s. However, I think the LSC is more challenging than the RMAC this year. That said, if CSU Pueblo makes the RMAC finals, I will give them the nod over the Hilltoppers.

Southeast — No. 1 seed: Catawba*

Super Regionals prediction: Lenoir-Rhyne/North Greenville

Winner: Lenoir-Rhyne

1. Catawba

2. North Greenville

3. Lenoir-Rhyne

4. North Georgia

5. Young Harris

6. Belmont Abbey

7. Carson-Newman

8. Mount Olive

Just missed: Coker, Francis Marion, Lander, UNC Pembroke

Notes: The final spot is still very wide open, but I think Mount Olive gets hot and plays like it should in the Conference Carolinas tournament, sealing its place in the bracket. The big change is that I have Catawba getting the No. 1 seed. This region is absolutely stacked and any team can beat any team.

West — No. 1 seed: Westmont

Super Regionals prediction: Westmont/San Francisco State

Winner: Westmont

1. Westmont

2. Northwest Nazarene

3. Point Loma

4. Chico State

5. San Francisco State

6. Cal State Monterey Bay

Just missed: Hawaii Pacific, MSU Billings

Notes: I like what I wrote last week, and since nothing change, I stand behind it. I went into detail about why I left MSU Billings out when the final selections were made last week, so I won’t get into it again, but my thoughts remain the same. I also think that right now Hawaii Pacific may have the numbers to sneak in, ultimately, the PacWest comes down to Point Loma and Westmont, which I don’t think leaves room for a third team. That opens the door for the Otters, who will be a threat to win it all if they sneak in after their slow start.