DII Report: First DII football championship bracket prediction... kinda
Here's a look at what the 28-team bracket could look like come November.
Welcome back, DII sports fans. While I know most of you subscribe for my DII baseball insight, let’s not forget, I cover EVERY DII sport. We are a little more than halfway through the DII football season, so it seems like an opportune time to start putting the bracket together. So, let’s take a look at what I think that may look like in this edition of the DII Report. I’ll be doing this every week until the selection show.
So, if you’re new to DII football, here’s a quick summation of what you need to know. There are four Super Regions. From these four Super Regions, seven teams are selected. Of those seven teams, Nos. 1-4 are seeded with the No. 1 seed getting a first-round bye. Obviously, this is huge, and at the moment, way too close in the intense Super Region Three (but more on that shortly). Teams ranked 5-7 in the regional rankings are now unseeded. Why? Because a few years back, the selection committee was given the option to move these unseeded teams into different Super Regions to cut down on the costs of travel among other scenarios.
How is the bracket filled? The selection committee looks at the following:
In-region winning percentage
Division II winning percentage
Division II strength of schedule (opponents’ average winning percentage and opponents’ opponents’ average winning percentage)
Division II head-to-head competition
Results versus Division II common opponents
For at-large bids, the committee is allowed to additionally look at:
Division II results vs. teams with a winning record
Kevin Pauga Index (KPI)
Performance Indicator (PI)
So, on Monday, Oct. 28 when the first Super Regional rankings are dropped, what you’ll see are the top 10 teams in each region PER THAT CRITERIA. I like to throw in here that these rankings are made by the NCAA DII football selection committee, and I have nothing to do with them (despite the abundance of emails I get annually thinking that I do). The regional rankings serve as a little preview as to what the bracket could look like, but there are still a ton of big football games to be played and a lot can change.
That is a super quick overview. If you want the full details, please check out my full guide to the DII football championship here.
What you’ll see below is NOT a regional ranking. If you want a great look at what the first regional rankings will look like, you should be following Inkblot Sports as those numbers come very close to what we’ll see in each of the three regional rankings beginning Oct. 28. Instead, this is a look at how I expect the top seven in each Super Region will look come selection Sunday, Nov. 17, on NCAA.com. Let me give you an example. Right now, Charleston (WV) is the likely No. 1 seed in Super Region One should the regional rankings come out. However, Kutztown has a slightly tougher schedule remaining, plus a likely spot in the PSAC championship game, which I foresee (should the Golden Bears win out) bumping Kutztown to the No. 1 spot.
It is also Week 7, so I’m not going to start guessing where the committee will move teams in and out of Super Regions. And yes, I am going to be wrong in some spots. That is the fun of this experiment: Following along each week as more unfolds.
Super Region One
Kutztown
Charleston (WV)
Slippery Rock
Cal (PA)
Ashland
New Haven
East Stroudsburg
In the hunt: Assumption, Findlay, Tiffin
Deep sleeper: Shepherd
Quick thoughts: I think right now, teams Nos. 1-7 are who we will see in November with not much changing — minus a few jumps in the seeding. Teams Nos. 1-3 are no-brainers all appearing in the top 15 of my weekly Power 10 rankings on NCAA.com. I can see Ashland surprising people but hear me out. A G-MAC team has to make it. Ashland’s big win over undefeated Findlay puts the Eagles atop the standings. They also have a win against Tiffin. The Eagles need to win out, but if they do, they should make the bracket, dominating both Findlay and Tiffin in the big metrics. Shepherd is a team to watch as it still has Kutztown and East Stroudsburg on the schedule, so the Rams can make some noise, but there is no room for error here.